[1]鲁祖亮,李林,曹龙舟.三峡库区碳排放预测模型[J].应用科技,2017,44(06):83-88.[doi:10.11991/yykj.201610006]
 LU Zuliang,LI Lin,CAO Longzhou.A Carbon emission prediction model in Three Gorges reservoir area[J].Applied science and technology,2017,44(06):83-88.[doi:10.11991/yykj.201610006]
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《应用科技》[ISSN:1009-671X/CN:23-1191/U]

卷:
第44卷
期数:
2017年06期
页码:
83-88
栏目:
动力与能源工程
出版日期:
2017-12-05

文章信息/Info

Title:
A Carbon emission prediction model in Three Gorges reservoir area
作者:
鲁祖亮12 李林1 曹龙舟1
1. 重庆三峡学院 非线性科学与系统结构重点实验室, 重庆 404100;
2. 天津财经大学 数学与经济研究中心, 天津 300222
Author(s):
LU Zuliang12 LI Lin1 CAO Longzhou1
1. Key Laboratory for Nonlinear Science and System Structure, Chongqing Three Gorges University, Chongqing 404100, China;
2. Research Center for Mathematics and Economics, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin 300222, China
关键词:
三峡库区碳排放量环境治理碳排放预测模型哈密顿函数庞特里亚金最大值原理马尔科夫过程龙格-库塔方法
Keywords:
Three Gorges reservoir areacarbon emissionenvironmental governancecarbon emissions prediction modelHamiltonian functionpontryagin maximum principleMarkov chainRunge-Kutta method
分类号:
O242.2,O175.2
DOI:
10.11991/yykj.201610006
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为减小三峡工程对下游地区生态环境的影响,对三峡库区二氧化碳的排放进行预测。主要研究三峡库区的二氧化碳排放预测问题,利用庞特里亚金最大值原理和马尔可夫过程建立三峡库区的二氧化碳排放模型,再将碳排放问题转化为一阶偏微分方程,然后利用四阶变步长龙格-库塔方法计算出2015~2021年三峡库区的整体二氧化碳排放量。根据这些数据,得出能源使用量与碳的排放量有着直接关系,二氧化碳的大量排放很可能导致全球的温室效应,然而一味减少能源使用量会影响经济的增长,如何在两者之间达到平衡就显得很重要,同时为三峡库区环境治理提供数据支持。
Abstract:
In order to reduce the ecological environment effects by the Three Gorges Project in the lower reaches of Three Gorges areas, a carbon emission prediction model was adopted. This paper mainly studies the prediction of carbon dioxide emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. By using Pontryagin’s maximum principle and the Markov process, the model of carbon dioxide emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir was established. The carbon emissions problem was transformed into a first-order differential equation. Then, the four-step variable step Runge Kutta method was used to calculate the total carbon dioxide emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area during 2015~2021. According to these data, it can be derived that the amount of energy use and carbon emissions has a direct relationship, and a lot of carbon dioxide emissions is likely to lead to global greenhouse effect, however, the reduction of energy consumption will influence the growth of economy. So how to achieve a balance between the amount of energy and carbon dioxide emissions is very important, and we also can provide data for the environmental governance in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2016-10-18。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(11201510, 11171251);中国博士后科学基金项目(2015M580197, 2017T100155);重庆市高校科研创新团队项目(CXTDX201601035);重庆市科委项目(cstc2015jcyjA20001);教育部春晖计划项目(Z2015139)
作者简介:鲁祖亮(1980-),男,教授,博士
通讯作者:鲁祖亮,E-mail:zulianglux@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-01-06